From snow to rain in Tasiilaq

In the past two months, Anna and I (Jorrit) have started the fieldwork for our research project in Tasiilaq, East Greenland. Our research project is called Snow2Rain. But what does this name mean? And what is it that we are interested in with this project? In this post, I will explain what the project name stands for and why climate researchers expect more rain in Greenland in the future.

The starting point of this story is that the Earth’s climate is changing fast. This long-term process where changes in the Earth’s climate occur is called climate change. Since the industrial revolution, humans started emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. These gases get trapped into our atmosphere and trap heat that the Earth is receiving from the sun. This is called the enhanced greenhouse effect. In short, it means that the Earth is warming. This warming does not happen equally fast all over the globe. In fact, the region above the Arctic circle warms more than twice as fast compared to the rest of the world due to sea ice loss (this process is referred to as Arctic Amplification).

Because of how our climate system works, certain changes in the climate can have many consequences for other parts of the climate system. For example, the strong increase in temperature in the Arctic region leads to less sea-ice in the ocean and therefore more evaporation of ocean water.

One would expect that the higher temperatures will in this way lead to more precipitation in Greenland. However, we can now learn from climate models, that there will be less snow in Greenland in the future. This is due to the fact that most of the ‘snow’, melts before it reaches the ground, due to the increasingly higher temperatures. Tasiilaq is located in a region in Greenland which normally gets high amounts of precipitation each year. For the reasons mentioned above, it is expected that the snowfall amount will decrease and that there will be more rain in the future.

A short recap: temperatures are rising all over the world and especially in the Arctic region. In Greenland, the higher temperatures lead to less sea ice and therefore more evaporation of ocean water. This evaporated water will eventually fall down, and when it does, it is increasingly likely that it will fall as rain, due to the higher temperatures. The project name Snow2Rain (snow to rain) reflects this future change from snowfall to more rainfall in Greenland.

Within the Snow2Rain project, we try to find out:

• What this change from snow to rain will look like in Tasiilaq in the future and how it will for example impact the seasonal snow that covers Tasiilaq every year.

• What this change from snow to rain can mean for the people living in Tasiilaq.

The change from snow to rain that is expected for Tasiilaq (and many other places located in or near the Arctic region) goes along with many other climatic changes. For example, in Tasiilaq, air temperatures are changing fast and the sea ice in the fjord is changing rapidly as well. Along with the change from snow to rain, we are also interested in these other climatic changes happening in the area of Tasiilaq, due to their co-dependency.

This is the reason why we spend a lot of time either on our fieldwork in Tasiilaq or looking at information from climate models and weather observations:  To better understand the changes happening in Tasiilaq and their impacts on the lives of local people.

I will finish with a short example of a way in which I examine the transition from snow to rain in Tasiilaq. In the figure above you can see climate model results of how much precipitation falls as rainfall during the summer season in the period 1958-2019. The climate model shows that the expected future change towards more rainfall, is already happening in Tasiilaq in the summer season.

This change from snow to rain shows that the climate in Tasiilaq is rapidly changing. How rapid? And in what way exactly? How does this influence the people living in Tasiilaq? Anna and I will continue to try to answer these questions in the remainder of the Snow2Rain project period.

Any questions about the change from snow to rain or other climate changes in Greenland? You can always reach out to us via info.snow2rain@gmail.com.

written by Jorrit van der Schot

Greenhouse gases (GHGs): Greenhouse gases are gases in Earth's atmosphere that trap heat.
Atmosphere: The whole mass of air that surrounds the earth (where all weather happens).
Enhanced greenhouse effect: The enhanced greenhouse effect, is the impact on the climate from the additional heat retained due to the increased amounts of greenhouse gases that humans have released into the Earth’s atmosphere since the industrial revolution.
Evaporation: The process where water changes from a liquid to a gas, which is needed for clouds to form from ocean water.
Arctic Amplification: The fact that the Arctic region is warming twice to three times faster than the rest of the planet, mainly due to sea ice loss.  
Precipitation: Precipitation is any liquid or frozen water that forms in the atmosphere and falls to the surface of the Earth.